Any guesses on what might happen tonight?
For the Repubs, I'm predicting: McCain, Romney, Huckabee. Buoyed by their NH stats, all three will stay in the race.
For the Dems, I'll say: Obama, Edwards, Clinton. All three will stay in as well.
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NH mirrors Iowa. Almost. Obama by 8 points +/- 2 then Clinton squeaks out a second place finish over Edwards. I feel that NH may be a little more conservative and a bit harder for the southerner to win over the hardened north easterner.
I have a feeling that Clinton is in a free-fall especially with that lame crying bit. New Hampshire voters can tell a loser when they see one.
Obama 40% Edwards 31% Clinton 19%
All stay in, Hillary's got too much special interest cash to quit now. Ever get the feeling Bill loves how badly she's doing?
Bill is probably finishing himself off in the sink.... I'm basing my opinion on the book I'm reading. It appears that's *all* Bill does.
Oh, and Repubs I'll take McCain, Romney, Giuliani then Huckabee let's say 31-25-19-17 All stay in as well.
It's agreed. Not one of the 7 top candidates drops out tonight. Giuliani finishes 4th or a distant third. McCain narrowly defeats Romney. These candidates can't drop out until February 6. They have too much money in the other states.
I still think it's Obama Clinton as the one two. Many of these voters are independents who would most likely vote Republican or at the very least not for Edwards. If they don't like Clinton why vote for Edwards when Obama is in the lead? Unless they vote on conviction, they'll choose Obama.
I was hesitating between Obama Edwards Clinton and Obama Clinton Edwards.
I don't think it matters. I think Obama is going to get the nomination. And while he's not progressive enough for me, I'd vote for him. (I'll still be voting for Edwards in my state's primaries, if only I can figure out which state that is... I think it's MD, and I'll have to vote absentee since it's too late to register in GA for the primaries.)
More thoughts on who *will* drop out in an upcoming post.
In New Hampshire cross over Repubs went for Edwards over Hillary by over 10 points. If you think Repubs like Hillary, listen to Rush.
In Iowa by over 10 points, not NH. sorry
Right - but that was Iowa - the first primary. Now that Obama has won Iowa, he has the momentum, and so the cross-over voters are more likely to vote for Obama over Edwards and Clinton.
With that said, all Obama wants is for them to NOT vote for Hilary. He obviously wants their votes but if they vote for Edwards, that's good for him too.
I personnally think Obama will wrap up the nomination tonight, and I will still stick to my Edwards #2. I think Hillary's pathetic "crying" video is like Dukakis in a tank.
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